Pretty much. A stock is a share of an actual company, bound by rules and regs (however imperfectly administered, at least they exist). i could talk for hours on the subject but Bitcoin is here to stay as it has already become central to a growing number of economies. Totally agree about cryptos- but not sure gold should be lumped in with them. But they dont have to go down for there to be a US stock market crash in real terms. MMM says: Cryptocurrencies are useful for anonymity and evading the government which is bad because we need the governemnt and we need to trust each other. Do you seriously think that corruption is not a big deal in first-world countries? Bitcoin has very little potential for the long term. So yes, blockchain = good bitcoin=maybe? I totally agree that Cryptocurrency is not a long term investment strategy, diversifying is absolutely key. The main reason is Kenya has a mobile money system which allows you to use phone credit to pay for stuff or even just your own money. January 3, 2018, 4:34 pm. It grew to $240k. As strong, intellengent Mustachians, we must think critically for ourselves about what is implied by trusting fiat currencies. Transactions takes as long as for banks (and soon banks will do trasnfers in seconds too, the real life tests have already started) and cost MORE. Im more inclined to trust contracts that cannot be broken. Ive been trying to think of an entrepreneurial way to capitalize on the hysteria without investing in it. Its super risky and probably not compatible with mustachianism, but that said its pretty interesting and I think it remains possible that MMM is wrong. January 5, 2018, 8:29 pm. Naturally sentiment plays an important role in BTCs price. And of course, the purpose of this whole aside is that I want to establish credibility with you, so you will give this article some consideration. I can see scenarios where some of these platforms develop staying power and become increasingly valuable for the actual work that they are needed to accomplish. So buying tulip bulbs is not insane at a reasonable price. So we need more credible people to speak out against it. (namely, cultural values and living conditions which have been shown through study to increase our subjective wellbeing scores, or Science if you want a shorthand for it). Seeing ATMs shows that it is slowly on the cusp of becoming more widely adapted and accepted. 15 Replies 10705 Views March 26, 2020, 05:23:27 PM . It can be entertaining, though, to sit there and watch people who just happen to have $7k in small bills on them feed it into the machine at 2 am. EvoInvestor Most of the arguments pro-Bitcoin are made by those who have bought into it; of course there is some motivation for arguing that others join them to drive up the price, which is entirely speculative. This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone. Over 3.5 billion people have no internet access; I am sure this is true as I thoroughly researched it for a chapter I published in a book this year. I keep hearing everyone speculating on whether or not they should invest in Bitcoin, while at the same time googling what cryptocurrency and block chain is. Big ERN just recommended me to your blog and now I see that you beat me to the joke I just made. But some people actually DO value rare baseball cards and stuffed animals and gold and tulips at current prices, as goods in and of themselves. The worlds governments are not going to let everyone start trading money anonymously and evading taxes using Bitcoin. Sorry, PoF, Im staying away from your Bitcoins until I see a Tweet about the ones filled with chocolate. He and his wife studied engineering and computer science in Canada, then worked in . He appeared on the Kevin Rose podcast as well. Research further. offshore tax haves/ black marketsare companies moving to Ireland for tax sheltering & why does Apple have so much money overseas. Keep fighting the good fight, Vijay. that would be a PE ratio of 1. The only flaw with your fingernail analogy is that most of your devotees would only be too willing to fork over $70,000 for them. Basically Mr. Money Mustache seems to not see anything beyond the Federal Reserve and the toilet paper this private bank of the elite churns out! Its the last one! A network like bitcoin that possesses millons of users and consists of billions of dollars of wealth means that in times of crisis around the world, the network itself can provide relief to anyone without discrimination. Theyre not very good experts. However EVERY SINGLE BITCOIN TRANSACTION IS PERMANENTLY RECORDED AND TRACEABLE. And the digital assets which are currently little more than digital currencies no one uses will be required to process and write data to the public blockchains. Bitcoin is mined using ASICs, not nVidias graphics cards. Crypto currency as an ecosphere financially has benefited the tech industry dramatically, and if you invest like Mr Money Mustache advises, that means you probably have a good amount invested into the S&P 500. And pray blurt out as to why it is bad equivocation? E.g. Like a piece of a profitable business or a rentable piece of real estate. Even as these banks show SKY-HIGH PROFITS, they mostly evade their share of tax via loopholes. But since the formula is open and free, other companies would quickly come out with their own cancer pills. So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. Not everyone agrees, but it cannot, unlike cryptos, be regarded as stupid. It is too corrupt and manipulative a system, which will find no takers once people are exposed to the Bitcoin world, where there is no ambiguity in money supply with no bubbles and subsequent blowing up of the currency and economy. So by definition we need to start talking about things that dont exist yet because they *cant* exist without immutable blockchains. David Wendelken As such, its an awful means of trade. When the supply of foolish speculators dries up, the value evaporates often very quickly. VTSAX returned over 22% last year. These are all things that people have bought in the past, and driven to completely irrational prices, not because they did anything useful or produced any money and value to society, but solely because they thought they would be able to sell them to someone else for more in the future. https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, Matt Stephenson I was hoping that when bitcoin futures became a real thing, Id be able to short it in a more normal way. 2) lots of other things are used as a store of value (paintings, etc) Redirecting to /r/mrmoneymustache/comments/mz1sma/thoughts_on_mmm_why_bitcoin_is_stupid/h094ynt (308) I can leave the country with it if the government ever gets out of hand (I cant do that with gold or cash since it will likely be confiscated or banks be frozen). The very definition of an unsophisticated investor is Being more willing to buy something, the more its price goes up.. These people are either shit scared of the changes that are going to come, or dont understand macro economics. Pete Adeney, aka Mr Money Mustache "As fluctuations continue over the time and you continue to invest, you get the average price as time goes on," he adds. The only reason the dollar is working as money is because it started out with gold backing and then they gradually removed the backing. Is the logical conclusion to short a mania or stay on the sidelines? Second: Human nature actually tolerates a *lot* of corruption in exchange to stability, so I dont think well be switching over to this science fair project any time soon. Ryan Thomas Plus $20 to run the transaction. They could also plateau until earnings catchup with prices.. Basic Economics Vijay. You could grow more bulbs indefinitely. Another intelligent case by highly experienced crypto business lawyer Preston Byrne. Glad to see some sense being written to the red necks who seem to inhabit this blog! As a result, changes in perceived value result in big price swings. Bill Batchelor For newer cryptocurrencies, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. Bitcoin finally surpassed $40K and topped at $41,940 on Jan 8. Again, this is really only true for FIAT CURRENCIES. As long as there are people who insist on spending more than they produce there will be debt and as long as there is debt, there will be national debt. But with 6-7 big mining players who dictate which fork of bitcoin to mine, the value of BTC or BCC or Segwit or whatever else comes, I have no faith in the value of BTC. If that is the case, their values are strictly driven by speculative bidding, making them the worst sort of investment. January 2, 2018, 6:04 pm. Fiat currencies my friend is working overtime for its own demise. Brent Weaver Except for ripple coin. One book that I found very useful in understanding the greed-fear cycle (and Central Banking and the Federal Reserve system to boot) is the 2001 classic Towards Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith. When my daughter asked what you could do with brick dust, the kids looked at her like she was an idiot and said, Well, buy more brick dust, of course.. Then my father used the same toilet paper for his cars and his house? And EVERYONE is posting, podcasting, and reporting on it. There valuation of pretty much everything but Bitcoin and Ethereum is unjustifiable. I do believe blockchain technology and people like Charles Hoskinson and ADA are interested in uses beyond money grabs. Since every appliance (computer, lightbulb or actual heater) is a 100% efficient electrical heater in a thermodynamic sense, you could shut off your heaters and run mining computers instead, to get the same amount of heat. If you do not know, We have prepared this article about details of Mr. Money Mustache's short biography-wiki, career, professional life, personal life, wife, girlfriend, dating, divorce, kids, today's net worth, age, height, weight, and more facts. For the first time in history, a machine can own money and make its own purchases. Having interest rates all the way down to near 0% without a good exit plan should give you some pause how much you want to trust these people. Dit is je geld nu waard als je een jaar geleden Bitcoin, goud of andere assets kocht. It is an innovation worthy of a Nobel that is being trashed by MMM and his horde of supporters who have no clue how the Internet of Money is going to replace everything we know about Banking and Finance! Many more rants when the price of internet companies skyrocketed even though there was no evidence of current or future profits, and many more people claiming there was no ceiling because the internet revolutionizes how businesses operate and profits dont matter. There are other points that I cant think of right now. If you arent selling people around you on the big dream, you probably wont make as high of return. I advise you look at the 10-year PE ratio. The sensible-sounding ones will say, Sure the G20 nations all have stable financial systems, but Bitcoin is a lifesaver in places like Venezuela where the government can vaporize your wealth when you sleep., The harder-core pundits say Even the US Federal Reserve is a bunch a CROOKS, stealing your money via INFLATION, and that nasty Fiat Currency they issue is nothing but TOILET PAPER!!. do not feed into this crap that there is no banking infrastructure. January 15, 2018, 11:44 am. Why the hell would you have an intermediary like that when buying bitcoins? Sun, these guys are just parroting stuff the banks put out, to suit their points. I read somewhere on Twitter (cant remember where) that you can use anyone who uses Blockchain as a proper noun as a heuristic for how little they know of the space. Jul 25, 2021 164 comments Or maybe you dont understand how exchanges work. Appreciate the term scarcity. Thats almost the opposite of how hydroelectric dams work (I did a couple years of power research in Quebec, which also has massive dams). Great text. So we need more credible people to speak out against it. Even if Mining gets centralised, Bitcoins future cannot be dictated to by them! February 13, 2018, 5:35 pm. Digiconomist notes this would make bitcoin the 59th biggest energy consumer if it were a country.. I can trade with anyone in the world for a low price (not necessarily with bitcoin as the price has gotten expensive but with other currencies). Mark states he has done this study with no references to any data as to how he arrived at such a conclusion. Will it help me achieve my financial dreams quicker? While silver and copper has been used as a form of money (notably imperial China, it was a silver based society with gold used as a high currency), golds special attributes has always been seen as a form of value storage and trusted trade medium. If you want to continue the ride, why not let the original investment of $28,000 ride? They always do.. Im not advocating throwing all your money into crypto (I havent see anyone say that). Closer to 85 years than 40. But thats just the software side (Blockchain). Mr. Frugal Toque While it is true that stocks are probably expensive right now, one thing that doesnt get mentioned enough with Shiller P/E is the E represents the 10-year rolling average inflation-adjusted earnings. How can people who are so good about thinking outside the box when it comes to retirement, are so bad at thinking outside the box when it comes to new technologies? Nothing is 100% guaranteed in life. No one person has control over it and that may end up being a good thing (people are corruptible). I agree totally. If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? Hows that Nvidia stock doing now that GPU sales have been skyrocketing this last year giving them two record years in 2016 and 2017? Bitcoin 2.0 is already here, people just dont know it yet. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/arts/design/has-the-art-market-become-an-unwitting-partner-in-crime.html. You could always follow the Long Island Iced Tea model: 1. Is it likely to be worth $0? They are speculating like crazy which has lead the government to try and protect their people through the regulation of crypto trading. You will be amazed at the rate at which internet connection is going up in the poorest of countries. Thats a tricky question. I think in five years bitcoin will pretty much disappear. I am smiling because Im content to let others gamble. Get out while you can. Ryan Thomas When recessions hit, they need that ability to brunt the damage inflicted on people. destroy? I know a lot of people in the DOTCOM bubble in the 2000s that were too focused on maximizing profits and lost most of their wealth on paper after the tech crash. MMM writes things like currency should not be artificially sparse and should expand. My friend who has a Masters in Computer Science inquired with me about investing in Bitcoin before Christmas and I told her essentially what I thought as mania. Im not saying to build a bunker or anything but just diversify your portfolio for different economic times. They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. January 4, 2018, 2:23 pm. Bitcoins are all the same, they are not numbered, they dont rot and dont have a shelf life. Our Banker friend goes on to explain that the first Cancer-Pill might initially see some great sales. Facebook is probably the 4th or 5th legitimate social media platform. I think getting out with $500,000 would be a great thing, but then that would be an enormous amount of money for me. Returns are down and all that cash needs to go somewhere. Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. But, these days you shouldnt use resistance heaters except for the lightest heating loads, because they are obsolete. Bitcoin is a case study, and they have no idea (or choose not to believe) that theyre headed for the unfortunate future footnotes of that case. WantNotToWantNot The vast majority of the companies trying to monetize the internet failed. Most people cant afford to drop huge amounts in crypto at one time, so you have college kids paying $2-3 every week buying $50 worth of BTC. Time will tell. However, there are a couple things you are wrong about here, and are worth commenting on. FirstPrincipleThinking As a real world comparison, I quote this nifty piece from a reader named The Unassuming Banker: Now imagine that the same person also created a product called Cancer-Pill using their own instructions, trade marked it, and started selling it to the highest bidders. Or? If you're like most Americans, you're a few . Speculation is great. Do you fault coffee or corn or wheat for being non-productive, or do you appreciate them as goods, at an appropriate price? Long time reader, first time commenter (ha). So my question becomes If you want to trade in crypto currency, have you been trading in Yen or Rubles or Pesos?. (based on July 20th blog post) Started by caracarn. also remember while the market cap is $230bn at least 20% of coins are lost from the early years. Thats not a bubble, but something else entirely. January 2, 2018, 5:49 pm. It can be laundered. Yes, you can buy index funds with fiat money and not with Bitcoin. It has been made ground up to be censorship resistant and has been thriving for past 8 years despite singular opposition from every quarter. Personally, I think this article shows that Mr Adeney has had his blog hijacked by the Anti-satoshi ;). No difference there. Id much rather invest in shares of Ripple Inc than in XRP. Lets get this straight: in order for Bitcoin to be a real currency, it needs several things: Bitcoin has none of these things, and even safely storing it is difficult (see Mt. Take a look at this shot from the website coinmarketcap.com, and observe the preposterous herd behavior in real life: Fig.1: Various cryptocurrencies, ranked by how many people have been fooled. The stock market over the long run will ALWAYS grow as long as the population and technology and our output as humans continues to grow. You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. A lot less then the advertisements made for taking those things away from you. With cryptocurrencies, you are literally betting that world governments, the G20, all major banks, The United Nations, financial institutions, exchanges, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, and all existing fiat currencies will change as radically as retail shopping has in the past 25 years. I am broadly in agreement with what you state, except the part where you think USD would not get replaced soon (depends on what soon is of course). Thanks for saying this MMM! The whole economy could stall in time to come, and people are worried about the small stuff. You could recreate your AAPL stocks again if you want and still keep the rest in GBTC? Thanks for your perspective on an interesting topic. Thank you! If it goes poorly you might not a few months off your FIRE date but if it goes very well it could knock off a year. January 2, 2018, 7:03 pm. Lastly, once KYC and AML is figured out, I have a hard time understanding why people would even want to use paper fiat instead of a digital fiat. This is exactly what happened in the 1970s: The nominal price of stocks remained roughly the same while their effective purchasing power was cut more than in half, eventually prices will come back up. Interesting article, with some great points. Its a vicious cycle, but Ive just got to bite the bullet instead of going Wah, it was $2 cheaper a week ago.. Mr. Money Mustache The Money Mustache Community . months) so other storage mechanisms are needed. at best. Im going to try putting some of my thoughts together in a post at the bottom. To keep things non-promotional, please use a real name or nickname(not Blogger @ My Blog Name). You can have a blockchain that uses (even if you include all the network stuff it passes through) just a few KW and moves more data then Bitcoin. Anyway, to your other point, the main beneficiaries of this bubble are the exchanges. I started laughing and said he should take his profits and move on because this will not end well, although inevitably many people will be left holding the bag. I buy bitcoin with the expectation that bitcoin will solve the problems it currently faces and become more widely accepted thus increasing demand driving up the price. I try to lead people to conclude what I have. In the US we call it the full faith and credit of the United States. =. The US has most to lose if dollars are exchanged for bitcoin as the US will not be able to print the cash for almost no cost and then get countries to use it for payment (my advice is be very worried about dollar value over next 10 years) but it was genius and made America rich! Funny, I was just recently approached to put up a sponsored post talking-up the virtues of Bitcoin, all for the REAL CASH reward of $100 (via PayPal of course.) We dont need to prey on their consumerism also. Mr. Butler I feel anything worth putting money in should, in broad over-simplified terms at least, be comprehensible even to a simpleton like me. Devs in their mid 20s who owe the IRS 50k and lost most everything. Most of us, especially in the US and Europe, are free and are allowed to accumulate wealth through education and hard work. Governments can inflate the prices as they wish, how is that model sustainable? Id like to address each. Lets be frank. January 2, 2018, 5:53 pm, Dear Mr. Mustache, I am so sorry you had to write this at all. Or when I have to go to the grocery store to buy milk and theres the sign that says NO POWER, CASH ONLY and my toddler is crying for milk, Im going to pay them in cash. Why should it not be? Millennial Boss This black one here is only $1,000,000,000,000,000. 3. Then the mining ist just looking up data in this table. ..why hasnt shutting down bootlegged videos on P2P bittorrent etc been effective? A similar dynamic is at play with stocks: Is $1 of ongoing future earnings worth sacrificing $1 today? This idea that you HAVE TO OWN ONE FULL BITCOIN is madness. In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. LennStar Stop Ironing Shirts A real, usable currency CANNOT have such huge fluctuations. Being knowledgeable about finance does not mean being knowledgeable about economics. 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